I think the next month is extremely dangerous. Putin needs to show strength to prevent mutiny back home but is lacking the ability to do it conventionally. Winter is coming. The defence ministry's nuclear train was spotted headed towards Ukraine. Biden is worried. Putin appointed a psyopath general to command. The bridge near the Black Sea to Crimea was sabotaged (of note, this bridge is the only way in for rail traffic). I am hoping this resolves without anything terrible happening but I'm also preparing for the "what if" scenario.